Poor countries seem to have stopped catching up with rich countries: The original story of divergence then convergence remains the same, despite the scope for the revised data to alter results. For the three decades leading up to the empirical literature on economic growth, the gap between developed and developing…
Read the note →Both economists agree that growth is still possible, but the age of “hyperglobalisation” – with its extraordinary convergence of openness, technology, and trust – is unlikely to return.
“Growth miracles seem less likely because two of the key mechanisms – access to big, lucrative markets and willingness to share technology across borders – no longer seem to be here.” Goldberg
As global trade enters a new, more fragmented era, the challenge for policymakers will be to find fresh ways to generate dynamic gains – in a world where the rules, and the relationships, are shifting fast.