essays

These are good times for all those who’ve been crying wolf about market crashes and economic crises for the past couple of decades. It just took two decades, but it seems like most of those apocalyptic predictions are partially starting to come true. The Weimar Republic people had been crying wolf about inflation since 2008. It only took 14 short years, but they were finally proved right. They were heard whispering, “I told you so.” They couldn’t shout because their throats had gone hoarse from crying wolf for 1.4 decades. The “a sovereign debt crisis is coming” people have been crying wolf for longer, but a crisis never came. But it finally looks like their time is about to come. For the past few months, I’ve been listening to the who’s who of macro. A recurring theme among these people is the looming sovereign and corporate debt crisis in emerging and advanced countries. I’m reliably told by certain genius macro commentators this is just a few months away. They were also generous enough to suggest I sell everything, invest in gold, buy an underground bunker and stock up on canned food and ammo. Very nice people. …

A few things that made me go, ooh, that’s interesting. What’s old is new again The Lindy Effect is this notion that the longer something survives, the less likely it is to die. When it comes to frauds, pump and dump schemes are Lindy. Pump and dump schemes have been going strong for over 400+ years since the birth of the modern stock exchange. …

A few things I learned this week. The post-2008 period was like a rave party for the financial markets. The central banks around the world had the hottest parties with cheap tickets, booze, and food. The parties were all the rage for well over a decade. But, it was 5 AM in 2020, and the party had become more of an after-party. The party people were tired and wanted to go to sleep. But suddenly, the central bankers decided to keep the party going by offering free booze and free money. Suddenly, the sleepy after-party became a raging after-after-party. …

Microsoft hit $2 trillion in marketcap a few days ago. There was a time when a trillion meant something, but it doesn’t seem so anymore. Microsoft and Apple now are worth over $2 trillion. It’s a silly comparison, but for context, the market cap of all listed companies on NSE is a little over $3 trillion. …